Publication Abstract

Delays, Demography and Cycles: AForensic study

W.S.C. Gurney, S.P. Blythe and T.K. Stokes

Strict logic implies that a hypothesis can only be proved wrong, but the mainmotivation of much science is to find out what is true. In this paper, we argue that theprocess of intuition building works by extending the classical Popperian paradigm ofhypothesis and refutation to include a close relative of the legal concept of"reasonable doubt". We believe that the way in which doubts are eroded involvesbuilding up a consistent picture over a wide ranging body of data-a process akin to theforensic investigations common in the legal process. We illustrate our argument byre-analysing A.J. Nicholson's classical data set on the Australian sheep blowfly Luciliacuprina. We conclude by discussing the implications of the investigative paradigm wedescribe for the design of experimental and observational programmes.

Reference:

W.S.C. Gurney, S.P. Blythe and T.K. Stokes, 1999. Delays, Demography and Cycles: AForensic study. Advances in Ecological Research, 28: 127-144.