Publication Abstract

Simulating management options for the North Sea in the 1880s

Simulating management options for the North Sea in the 1880s

S. Mackinson

An Ecopath model of the North Sea in the 1880s, is used here in evaluating the utility of the Ecosim policy simulation routine. The model representation of the North Sea in the 1880s was 're-constructed' by combining present information on trophic linkages of North Sea species with historical scientific and local knowledge. The model captures the period when sailing vessels still predominated and industrialised fishing was on the cusp of explosive development. Evaluation of Ecosim policy simulation routines focussed on sensitivity analysis in relation to: (i) initialisation options of optimisation routines, (ii) the effect of the user input vulnerability flow rate parameter, v, (iii) parameter settings for the 'closed-loop' analysis of management errors. By providing users with tools to examine various policy options and objectively comparing them using criteria scores, the policy evaluation options contribute great utility to the Ecopath with Ecosim software. However, it is important to re-iterate that users should not interpret criteria scores as providing direction for management advice; results of simulations depend heavily on specific parameter settings used. In particular, simulations are very sensitive to the user input vulnerability flow rate. Specific noteworthy points/ issues arising from the simulations are commented on.

Reference:

S. Mackinson, 2002. Simulating management options for the North Sea in the 1880s. p. 73-82 In: Pitcher T; Cochrane K (eds.) The use of ecosystem models to investigate multispecies management strategies for capture fisheries. Vancouver BC. Fisheries Centre Research Reports.

S. Mackinson*

p. 73-82 In: Pitcher T; Cochrane K (eds.) The use of ecosystem models to investigate multispecies management strategies for capture fisheries. Vancouver BC. Fisheries Centre Research Reports.