Publication Abstract

Climatic Changes in Relation to the North Sea. The North Sea - Today and Tomorrow

Climatic Changes in Relation to the North Sea. The North Sea - Today and Tomorrow

W.R. Turrell, S.L. Hughes and S.R. Dye

The North Sea is a shallow, wide shelf sea connected through its open northern boundary with the north-east Atlantic. The North Sea itself is not a simple system, divided between the deeper ocean-dominated northern North Sea and the shallower southern North Sea. Within these areas, we can identify further regional differences, with varying types of coastline, coastal waters, banks and deeps. The circulation of the North Sea brings in oceanic nutrients and plankton, disperses plankton, fish eggs and larvae, as well as dispersing inputs from man, including nutrients, chemicals and wastes. The density of the water of the North Sea is affected by heating from the sun, as well as freshwater input from the coasts. The density structure of the North Sea affects primary production, which provides the bottom of the food chain in the North Sea. The density and density structure also influences the circulation.

All of these processes are being, and will increasingly be, altered by climate change. The pattern of winds blowing over the North Sea is changing, as well as the strength of the winds and the occurrence of storms. This may alter the circulation and mixing within the North Sea. Rainfall is increasing in some areas and seasons, changing the supply of freshwater, nutrients and contaminants from the land. There are changes in the oceanic waters which feed the North Sea, resulting in changes to the source waters entering from the north. The sea level is rising, with resultant changes to coastlines, including the loss of some inter-tidal habitats. Sea level rise coupled with an increased frequency of storm surges will result in increased coastal flooding. Perhaps the most evident climatic change is in the temperature of the North Sea. Today the North Sea is getting warmer, and tomorrow it will continue to become warmer. This, by itself, has repercussions for North Sea ecosystems and habitats. Coupled with the other aspects of climate change, regional warming means that we can expect large ecological alterations within the North Sea. Management plans must be able to cope with change. Concepts such as reference points and recovery to some past state should be reconsidered in relation to the changing North Sea climate.

 

W.R. Turrell, S.L. Hughes and S.R. Dye*

International Conference on Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Environment, Fisheries, Regional Planning and Development. Ringkrbing, Denmark, 2005.